The urge to surge: Washington’s 30-year high
As 2011 begins, what could be eerier than reading secret Soviet documents from the USSR’s Afghan debacle of the 1980s? It gives you chills to run across Communist Party General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev at a Politburo meeting in October 1985, almost six years after Soviet troops first flooded into Afghanistan, reading letters aloud to his colleagues from embittered Soviet citizens (“The Politburo had made a mistake and must correct it as soon as possible — every day precious lives are lost.”); or, in November 1986, insisting to those same colleagues that the Afghan war must be ended in a year, “at maximum, two.” Yet, with the gut-wrenching sureness history offers, you can’t help but know that, even two years later, even with a strong desire to leave (which has yet to surface among the Washington elite a decade into our own Afghan adventure), imperial pride and fear of loss of “credibility” would keep the Soviets fighting on to 1989.
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Or in 1988, with the war still dragging on, to read a “closed” letter the Communist Party distributed to its members explaining how the Afghan fiasco happened (again, the sort of thing that any honest American leader could say of our Afghan war): “In addition, [we] completely disregarded the most important national and historical factors, above all the fact that the appearance of armed foreigners in Afghanistan was always met with arms in the hands [of the population]… One should not disregard the economic factor either. If the enemy in Afghanistan received weapons and ammunition for hundreds of millions and later even billions of dollars, the Soviet-Afghan side also had to shoulder adequate expenditures. The war in Afghanistan costs us 5 billion rubles a year.”
Or finally the pathetic letter the Soviet Military Command delivered to the head of the UN mission in Afghanistan on February 14, 1989, arguing (just as the American military high command would do of our war effort) that it was “not only unfair but even absurd to draw… parallels” between the Soviet Afghan disaster and the American war in Vietnam. That was, of course, the day the last of 100,000 Soviet soldiers — just about the number of American soldiers there today — left Afghan soil heading home to a sclerotic country bled dry by war, its infrastructure aging, its economy crumbling. Riddled by drugs and thoroughly demoralized, the Red Army limped home to a society riddled by drugs and thoroughly demoralized led by a Communist Party significantly delegitimized by its disastrous Afghan adventure, its Islamic territories from Chechnya to Central Asia in increasing turmoil. In November of that same year, the Berlin Wall would be torn down and not long after the Soviet Union would disappear from the face of the Earth.
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The Cold War was over. The surge had it. We were supreme. And what better high could there be than that?
Det är bara 20 år sen Sovjetunionen kollapsade och spåren syns fortfarande allt för tydligt i alla de forna medlemsländerna. Jag har rest en del i många av länderna och Sovjettiden märks fortfarande tex i gammal grå betong från de svulstiga Sovjetplanerna men även i folksjälen. Trots att det är en generation sen så finns det fortfarande kvar en avsky för ryssen och får man dem att berätta om tiden före Sovjetunionens fall så är det sällan några positiva ord man får höra. Från de ryssar jag talat om får man mer blandade åsikter, vissa minns fortfarande Sovjettiden som en enklare tid då man kanske hade det knapert men då livet i alla fall var tryggare, andra minns trångboddheten, bristen på vitala saker som tex toapapper och den konstanta hopplösheten. Förmodligen var det ändå enklare för de som bodde i Ryssland eftersom de åtminstone inte var ockuperade som folket i många av de övriga länderna såg sig.
Att resa runt i de forna öststaterna var intressant, mellan två byar kunde det ringla sig en förfallen väg där man fick kryssa fram mellan tjälskotten samtidigt som man fick se upp för den övriga trafiken som ofta körde som blådårar, mellan nästa två byar kunde vägen vara nyasfalterad och i utmärkt skick. En fabrik kunde ligga i en grå och trist betongbyggnad med rostiga fästen för sedan länge kollapsade strukturer, men inuti var hela lokalen helt omgjord, nyrenoverad och i toppskick. Lyxiga villor byggda av nyrika kunde ligga sida vid sida med ett gammalt ruckel som såg ut som om det skulle kunna kollapsa när som helst. Det är samhällen som fortfarande kämpar för att komma på fötter efter den totala kollaps som 1991 innebar för dem. De har inte glömt sovjeteran för de påminns fortfarande dagligen om den, men vi i väst verkar ha glömt alltihop.
”[B]arely five hours after American Airlines Flight 77 plowed into the Pentagon… Rumsfeld was telling his aides to come up with plans for striking Iraq,” even though he was already certain that al-Qaeda had launched the attack. (”‘Go massive,’ the notes quote him as saying. ‘Sweep it all up. Things related and not.'”)
And so they did. They swept up everything and then watched as their dreams and geopolitical calculations were themselves swept into the dustbin of history. And yet the urge to surge, twisted and ever more desperate, did not abate.
The Soviet path To one degree or another, we have been on the Soviet path for years and yet, ever more desperately, we continue to plan more surges. Our military, like the Soviet one, has not lost a battle and has occupied whatever ground it chose to take. Yet, in the process, it has won less than nothing at all. Our country, still far more wealthy than the Soviet Union ever was, has nonetheless entered its Soviet phase. At home, in the increasing emphasis on surveillance of every sort, there is even a hint of what made “soviet” and “totalitarian” synonymous.
The US economy looks increasingly sclerotic; moneys for an aging and rotting infrastructure are long gone; state and city governments are laying off teachers, police, even firefighters; Americans are unemployed in near record numbers; global oil prices (for a country that has in no way begun to wean itself from its dependence on foreign oil) are ominously on the rise; and yet taxpayer money continues to pour into the military and into our foreign wars. It has recently been estimated, for instance, that after spending $11.6 billion in 2011 on the training, supply, and support of the Afghan army and police, the US will continue to spend an average of $6.2 billion a year at least through 2015 (and undoubtedly into an unknown future) — and that’s but one expense in the estimated $120 billion to $160 billion a year being spent at present on the Afghan War, what can only be described as part of America’s war stimulus package abroad.
And, of course, the talk for 2011 is how to expand the American ground war — the air version of the same has already been on a sharp escalatory trajectory — in Pakistan. History and common sense assure us that this can only lead to further disaster. Clear-eyed leaders, military or civilian, would never consider such plans. But Washington’s 30-year high in the region, that urge to surge still coursing through its veins, says otherwise, and it’s not likely to be denied.
Sooner than later, Washington, the Pentagon, and the US military will have to enter rehab. They desperately need a 12-step program for recovery. Until then, the delusions and the madness that go with surge addiction are not likely to end.
Historien upprepar sig, klockan klämtar för ännu en stormakt. USA verkar vara helt inriktade på att likt en supernova gå under i en enorm explosion som drar med sig alla grannar innan de kollapsar till en dvärg, en skugga av sin forna storhet. Precis som Sovjetunionen. Precis som det Romerska imperiet. Om inte USA tänker om, och det snart, så kommer USA kastas in i samma mardröm som de östeuropeiska nationerna mötte år 1991. Ju längre de vägrar inse utan pumpar in pengar i sitt krigsmaskineri i stället för att försöka bygga upp sitt land igen, dess värre kommer förstås kollapsen bli.
Den stora frågan är bara hur det kommer påverka Sverige och EU. Jag tror det är ganska lugnt att påstå att det knappast kommer påverka oss positivt, i alla fall inte på kort sikt. Det kommer givetvis även uppstå ett maktvacuum som måste fyllas av något annat, men frågan är av vad. Att det inte kommer vara ett västland kan vi nog ganska lugnt utgå ifrån så det finns en uppenbar risk att vi kommer få se en politisk världskarta som plötsligt börjar luta markant mer österut.
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