Vinden vänder?

Ars technica publicerade idag en artikel med rubriken US government finally admits most piracy estimates are bogus

First, a number of industry, media, and government publications have cited an FBI estimate that U.S. businesses lose $200-$250 billion to counterfeiting on an annual basis. This estimate was contained in a 2002 FBI press release, but FBI officials told us that it has no record of source data or methodology for generating the estimate and that it cannot be corroborated.

Second, a 2002 CBP press release contained an estimate that U.S. businesses and industries lose $200 billion a year in revenue and 750,000 jobs due to counterfeits of merchandise. However, a CBP official stated that these figures are of uncertain origin, have been discredited, and are no longer used by CBP. A March 2009 CBP internal memo was circulated to inform staff not to use the figures. However, another entity within DHS continues to use them.

Third, the Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association reported an estimate that the U.S. automotive parts industry has lost $3 billion in sales due to counterfeit goods and attributed the figure to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). The OECD has also referenced this estimate in its report on counterfeiting and piracy, citing the association report that is sourced to the FTC. However, when we contacted FTC officials to substantiate the estimate, they were unable to locate any record or source of this estimate within its reports or archives, and officials could not recall the agency ever developing or using this estimate. These estimates attributed to FBI, CBP, and FTC continue to be referenced by various industry and government sources as evidence of the significance of the counterfeiting and piracy problem to the U.S. economy.

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Mao, precis som många redan hävdat om och om igen så finns det inget belägg för att de katastrofsiffror som tex upphovsrättsbranschen målat upp har någon som helst relevans och när man nu börjar gräva lite på djupet så visar det sig också föga förvånande att det är substanslösa påståenden. Inte nog med det, piratkopiering (både av upphovsrättsskyddat material och även mer materiella saker) har visat sig kunna ha fördelar med:

For instance, these studies ignore the obvious points that pirating goods leaves consumers with more disposable income, which is likely spent elsewhere in the economy. Effects on the economy as a whole, then, are terribly speculative and seem more likely to be simply redistributive.

None of this is to say that piracy and counterfeiting aren’t real problems. The GAO accepts that the problem is ”sizeable,” but it also points out just how much bad data is used to produce these studies. Actual dollar figures and job loss numbers should be handled with extreme care and a good bit of skepticism; the GAO also noted that numerous experts told it that ”there were positive effects [from piracy on the economy] and they should be assessed as well.”

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Det här rimmar rätt bra med undersökningar som tex visar att de som fildelar mycket också ofta köper mycket underhållning.

Kommer det här innebära att tex ACTA-förhandlingarna kommer avbrytas? Knappast. Det finns fortfarande väldigt mycket pengar att hämta i ett förstärkt monopol för de berörda branscherna, men förhoppningsvis blir det mer uppenbart nu att de inte slåss för några högre ideal än egenintresset.

Pingat på Intressant.